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Aron Wright - June 26, 2024
The World Cup in 2022 was notable for a number of reasons – not least that Lionel Messi finally got his hands on the trophy.
But the decision to host the quadrennial showpiece in the winter, which went down like a lead balloon, has changed the possible face of the World Cup forever.
And the changes around how stoppage time is calculated, designed to increase the amount of ‘active time’ in games, saw some contests last as long as 120 minutes.
That directive has continued, with the 2023/24 season seeing more and more late goals as a consequence – a pattern that also found its way to EURO 2024.
Here’s how, as punters, we can capitalise….
When betting on football matches, there’s a temptation to tuck into the pre-game markets, like match winner, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals and so on.
The most popular of the Paddy Power EUROs odds, as was the case at most sportsbooks, were the outright prices – with England, France and Germany vying for favouritism throughout the tournament.
That’s all fair enough, of course, but punters are perhaps missing a trick by not holding back their bets until the game is into its second half.
EURO 2024 confirmed why. When Mattia Zaccagni curled home a 98th minute equaliser for Italy against Croatia on June 24, it was the ninth goal to be scored in injury time during the tournament – a record for the group phase at the European Championship, with eight games still left to be played at the time.
The day before, Hungary had broken Scottish hearts with a late winner of their own – that 99th minute strike was the latest to ever be scored in a EUROs game.
Rather than simply being unusual anomalies, late goals had become par for the course in many of Europe’s key leagues during the 2023/24 season – EURO 2024 was simply a dedicated follower of the fashion.
So what does this all mean for punters?
Evidently, there’s value to be found in betting on action late in the second half of games – when the bulk of the stoppage time is added on.
The context of the match is important, but where one team – or both – needs desperately to score to stay in the tournament, they are evidently going to throw more bodies forward in the hope of a late goal.
It’s a tactic that can work in their favour, or – in the case of Georgia – it can go against them, with goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili left stranded up-field when going up for a corner, enabling Turkey to score an easy 97th minute breakaway goal.
