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Aron Wright - February 1, 2024
For many clubs, just getting to the English Premier League (EPL) feels like the pinnacle, but staying there is a Herculean task. That’s why the relegation battle captures the imagination of EPL fans year in, year out. Relegation to the EFL Championship means a significant drop in revenue, with parachute payments the only consolation to assist with a promotion bid next season.
Some clubs have made a fist of becoming “yo-yo” outfits, bouncing up and down from the EPL to the Championship. However, Norwich City are proof that this plan simply doesn’t work long term. With just over half of the 2023/24 EPL season elapsed, now is a good time to assess the teams most likely to be battling to avoid the drop this year.
Although Rob Edwards’ men have bloodied some top-flight noses in recent months, the Hatters are still one of the favourites for the drop. At Betano, a leading licensed sports betting platform operating across the globe, Luton are currently third favourites (-385) to finish in the bottom three. Their fellow newly promoted counterparts, Sheffield United (-5000) and Burnley (-625) make up the other two favourites for the drop.
Their rustic Kenilworth Road stadium and tight pitch could yet work in their favour. It’s by no means a Premier League stadium and is something of a leveller when the big boys come to play.
The Clarets stormed to the EFL Championship title in 2022/23, with boss Vincent Kompany implementing a stylish, high-energy playing style. For some reason this hasn’t translated well in the top flight. Burnley have fared worse than playoff winners Luton, who many expected to struggle due to their more physical, direct approach.
Burnley are averaging two goals conceded per game, which is by no means sustainable, especially if your team averages only one goal scored per game.
It’s a bleak picture still for fellow newly promoted outfit, Sheffield United. The Blades, who stormed to automatic promotion from the EFL Championship in 22/23, have won just two games in their opening 21 EPL fixtures. They’ve conceded 51 goals in 21 games, including an 8-0 hammering by Newcastle United on home soil.
United recently changed their manager, firing Paul Heckingbottom and re-employing former boss Chris Wilder in the hope of mounting a fightback. Scoring goals remains a huge problem, with only 17 goals scored in their first 21 games.
Everton fans will be gutted to even be in the relegation conversation given their start to the 2023/24 EPL campaign. On paper, eight wins, three draws and ten defeats should give the Toffees 27 points, leaving Sean Dyche’s men in 12th place. However, a ten-point penalty imposed for failing to comply with Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations leaves Everton fourth bottom just one point ahead of Luton.
Dyche is highly regarded for his well-organised teams and Everton have been no different. The only issue for the Toffees could be if the fear of being sucked into the relegation zone affects them mentally.
Nottingham Forest narrowly survived relegation in 2022/23, but the Tricky Trees find themselves embroiled in another scrap for safety this term. Forest are only four points above the bottom three, averaging just under one point per game.
Forest have shuffled their roster multiple times since promotion from the Championship in 2021/22. Some believe they’ve made too many changes, ruining the team spirit and cohesion. Steve Cooper was recently relieved of his managerial duties. This was a dark day for Forest fans who’d taken Cooper to their hearts after steering Forest from the bottom of the Championship to the EPL.
South London club Crystal Palace have slid down the Premier League table in recent months. Five wins in 21 games has left the Eagles only five points ahead of Luton, who have a game in-hand.
The elephant in the room at Palace is the future of their manager. Veteran boss Roy Hodgson has confirmed he will retire at the end of the season. This means there’s little long-term planning with the Palace squad right now. The team appears somewhat rudderless and, if they continue to slide closer to the drop zone, Palace may be forced to eject Hodgson sooner to steady the ship short-term before looking ahead to the future.
One thing is for certain, the relegation battle in the 2023/24 EPL is as intense as ever.
