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Aron Wright - April 25, 2024
It’s a cliché said with tongue firmly in cheek, but the last few weeks of the football season can be a time when some players – with nothing to play for in terms of silverware or prestige – take their foot off the gas.
They start to dream about their summer holidays, while clubs jacked up with motivation – be it the desperate need for points, or players seeking a new contract or transfer elsewhere – continue to give 100% to the very end.
It explains why the formbook is so topsy-turvy towards the end of the campaign. And this ‘on the beach’ mentality also reveals why Manchester City are the favourites to win yet another Premier League title.
The English Premier League winner odds make City a 3/4 favourite to defend their crown, ahead of Arsenal (2/1) and Liverpool (9/2).
There are a number of reasons for that favouritism. Most pundits would agree that they have the best squad in the Premier League, while their exit from the Champions League at the hands of Real Madrid means that Pep Guardiola and his players can focus solely on domestic glory.
But make no mistake: the easy-going nature of the opponents left on their fixture list will also benefit the Cityzens from now until the end of the campaign.
Although Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have their hands full with matters at either end of the division, City’s other games are against Fulham, Wolves and West Ham – all comfortably ensconced in mid-table with very little jeopardy to keep them on their collective toes.
Playing against a side like Manchester City, a team has to be almost perfect in how it pulls off its defensive work – organisation and hard work key to keeping Kevin de Bruyne and co at bay. Anything less than full concentration can prove disastrous… thoughts of sun, sand, sea and Sangria catastrophically so.
It’s been another good season for Arsenal: but at some point, that positivity needs to be transformed into trophies if the Gunners are going to retain their place towards the head of English football.
There could be further ramifications for a young side whose players may be tempted elsewhere if they feel that their ambition isn’t been matched by the London club. A big trophy win may be the only thing that keeps this scintillating squad together.
This Premier League campaign may be their best chance of achieving exactly that having been knocked out of the Champions League.
Arsenal aren’t aided by a lack of ‘on the beach’ opponents – Bournemouth, safe in mid-table but ending the season quietly, the only suitable candidate.
Indeed, their other remaining EPL games are likely to be fiercely contested, with local bragging rights – as well as European qualification – on the line against Tottenham, while you sense that some Manchester United’s players are fighting for their careers at Old Trafford.
Everton, well, their relegation predicament requires little introduction, so Arsenal can expect a series of intense games to finish the season – and that may ultimately be the difference-maker that sees them fall just short of the Premier League title once more.
