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Arun - September 17, 2024
It must feel like Groundhog Day for Evertonians. After flirting with relegation for two consecutive seasons, they found themselves rock bottom of the EPL just three games into the new season.
While they’ve managed to claw themselves away from relegation against the odds over the last two seasons, multiple teams have shown that there’s only a certain number of times you can get drawn into the relegation battleground before you eventually fall – and will this season be the deciding one for the Toffees?
Often, sportsbooks are the best judge of whether a team has the best chance of staying up. Despite Everton’s disaster of a start, it isn’t all doom and gloom – minus one of the most bizarre five-minute spells in the history of English football, where they managed to lose a game despite being 2-0 up after 86 minutes, they could’ve easily steamrolled Bournemouth.
Objectively, there are three worse teams than Everton and Bournemouth – at least if you believe what the sportsbooks say. Everton is around evens to go down at the moment, and it’s probably about right. Football odds can change quickly and dramatically, though. The Thunderpick sportsbook has a broad range of EPL odds.
You only need to see how quickly those markets can change monthly based on various factors, such as key player injuries and suspensions. Still, we’d say the sportsbook odds at the moment seem about fair, with Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich considered more likely to be relegated when the season concludes in May 2025.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton’s leading man – and if he stays fit for the whole season, then the Toffees should be able to steady the tide and stay up. Everton have never been relegated from the Premier League.
In fact, Everton haven’t been relegated since 1951. No other team in English football has spent longer in the top flight, aside from Arsenal – so the idea that they could go down, in the eyes of many Everonians, is unfathomable.
Under Carlo Ancelotti, Everton were in a much better position. This was when Calvert-Lewin showed he was a Premier League-proven striker. However, he can blow hot and cold, and although the team is undoubtedly better when he is out on the pitch, he also has the potential to go missing for large parts – including last year when he scored twice in a week after going 18 games without a goal.
Everton have international-quality players, including Jarrad Branthwaite and new signing Jake O’Brien, who haven’t featured in their first three games. Other teams around them also need to ensure their key men don’t get injured or suspended; it’s a two-way street.
The elephant in the room for The Toffees has been their disastrous mismanagement off the pitch. Sean Dyche is Everton’s eighth permanent manager in as many years. As any club with such a revolving door on its managerial policy, this has manifested into dreadful performances on the pitch.
Compound this with the points deductions they received and the fact that they could be subjected to further deductions in the future, given how they got another two points deducted in April due to financial breaches, Everton could potentially find themselves dragged into significant trouble if they’re subject to another deduction.
The prospect of relegation poses a threat to Everton on multiple levels. Given that their new stadium is near completion, if they do get relegated this season, there’s a pretty good chance that the club could enter perilous financial territory—to the point where they could end up in administration.
Everton has shown that they are one of the most resilient squads in the league, and Sean Dyche is a manager who knows how to steady the ship. He’s already proven this at Everton, despite the Toffees seemingly hellbent on putting themselves in the most dire positions possible.
We’d say they have more than enough to stay up, and three worse teams than them could go down. Now, we know that’s not always a tried and tested formula, and better teams than this current Everton squad have been relegated in the past.
Still, they should survive the drop if they can avoid suspensions, keep their main stars away from the injury table, and put together performances like we saw in the first 86 minutes of the Bournemouth game. Obviously, avoiding the points deduction is vital, too.
Since the dust has settled, it’s important not to get too disheartened by five minutes of madness.
Ironing out those defensive errors will be easier once Branthwaite is back in the squad and their big summer signing, O’Brien, starts to feature. While we wouldn’t bet our house on it by any stretch of the imagination, seeing them go down would still be a surprise.
