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Aron Wright - June 29, 2018
Brazil vs Mexico
2018 World Cup Round of 16
Date: Monday, 2 July 2018
Kick-Off at 15:00 UK / 16:00 CET
Venue: Samara Arena, Samara.
Mexico ruined the all the god job they had done in the opening two ties inexplicably falling in a decisive clash with Sweden by three goal margin. Luckily for Juan Carlos Osorio and his men, the reigning champions Germany could not go past Korea Republic in the other game of the group, meaning El Tri came second at the end.
Nevertheless, the Mexicans now have a much tougher opponent to handle in the battle for the quarterfinal of the competition as they travel to Samara to take on the five-time champions Brazil on Monday afternoon.
Selecao kind of disappointed in underwhelming displays against Switzerland and Costa Rica in the opening two ties, but they moved through the gears to ease past European hopefuls Serbia on the final day of the group phase. It was a decent showing overall for Tite’s men who created well up front whenever they showed the intention to go for goal as they closed the game relatively comfortably 2-0 in spite of a 15-minute period of Serbian dominance at the start of the second half.
Philippe Coutinho is definitely the no 1 Brazilian at the tournament. Barcelona’s winger notched the only goal in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. H was also the one who broke the deadlock in the stoppage time of the second round tie against Costa Rica as well.
His through ball which found his Blaugrana teammate Paulinho was just magnificent, only enlarging Coutinho’s impact Brazil’s success in the recent period. The former Liverpool man took part in six goals in his last seven appearances for Selecao and he will no doubts be the one to watch out here against Mexico as well.
El Tri were just on the brink of an early group phase exit when they were three-goal down to Sweden, knowing that only a single goal for Germany against Korea Republic knock them out of the competition. They were thus entirely dependent on Koreans who have produced one of the biggest upsets in the history of World Cups, sending the champions home and ending their amazing run of 16 subsequent knockout stage appearances (ever since 1954).
Alisson – Fagner, Silva, Miranda, Marcelo – Paulinho, Casemiro, Coutinho – Willian, Jesus, Neymar.
Ochoa – Gallardo, Salcedo, Moreno, Alvarez – Herrera, Guardado – Layun, Vela, Lozano – Chicharito.
Brazil and Mexico are set to cross each other’s paths for the 29th time on Monday in Samara. They played each other in the previous edition of the World Cup as well when their group stage game saw a goalless draw.
The two teams have met each other just once since then as Brazil came on top 2-0 (a friendly) with goals from Philippe Coutinho and Diego Tardelli. Overall, Selecao won 16, drew 4 and lost 8 of 28 head to head meetings with Mexico.
El Tri did not score a single goal in last three outings against Brazil, while none of past four H2H ties saw goals at both ends or three or more goals scored.
Mexico passed the group for the eighth consecutive time in a row at World Cups and this will by no means be a one-way street for the Brazilians, as big of favourites they are ahead of the fixture in Samara. El Tri shipped three odd goals to Sweden in a match which saw them fail to convert (primarily Carlos Vela) on numerous occasions.
The power of Mexican counter-attacks could have best been noticed in the opener against Germany. Brazil will have to be careful in their build-up play and we can clearly expect a rather more careful approach from Tite’s troops on the day.
Both sides have generally been very tough to break down lately and given the stakes are sky-high and that none of last four H2H encounters saw three or more goals, we have to go for the Under 2.5 goals FT bet at 1.80.
Since Brazil conceded just six goals in last 24 matches, including one in three World Cup affairs, we will alternatively back them to keep a clean sheet at 1.90.
